Sovereign wealth funds are gearing up for a sustained period of higher inflation, which has surged from historically low levels since the COVID-19 pandemic and the start of the conflict in Ukraine.
Inflationary pressures are being fuelled by reflationary fiscal and monetary policies, national industrial strategies aimed at reshaping supply chains, and extensive public investment to tackle climate change through mitigation and adaptation efforts. Some of these policies are set to persist, exacerbating inflation and eroding the purchasing power of assets and returns over the long term.
This environment poses significant risks to investors. As highlighted in a 2024 IFSWF webinar by strategists from Australia’s Future Fund, Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Investment Company, and Singapore’s GIC, higher and more volatile inflation complicates the investment landscape. This environment introduces greater uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of consumer prices, company input costs, and the interest rates set by central banks to rein in inflation.
Navigating this inflationary environment presents formidable challenges for investors in achieving their target returns. Sovereign wealth funds have adjusted their capital allocation strategies for direct investments in the following ways:
In 2023, real estate investments by sovereign wealth funds rose almost 50% from $10.9 to $14.8 billion
In 2023, real estate investments by sovereign wealth funds rose almost 50% to $14.8 billion, an amount last seen in 2018. Real estate also accounted for 20% of sovereign wealth funds’ direct investments. Including infrastructure investments, hard assets represent 40% of sovereign investments combined.
Sovereign wealth funds have extended their investment focus from software and services technology companies to those focused on hardware and industrials. They invested over $6 billion across 68 investments in the industrial sector, marking a significant departure from previous years.
There was a significant decrease in sovereign wealth fund direct investments in startups in 2023, with only 31 participations in venture capital rounds of equity raise, compared to 97 deals completed in 2022. This decline reflects a broader global trend, as 2023 was a challenging year for VC investment worldwide due to geo-economic challenges and concerns about the valuations of VC-backed companies.
Douraid Zaghouani
COO, Investment Corporation of Dubai
Navigating the Polycrisis: Sovereign Wealth Funds’ Sustainable Investments in Turbulent Times
Bernardo Bortolotti, University of Turin and Transition Investment Lab, Stern at New York University Abu Dhabi (NYUAD)
Abhinav Mangat, Transition Investment Lab, Stern at NYUAD
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